Ahead of Afghan vote, warlords are threat
Krishnadev Calamur
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
09/28/2004
Washington, DC, Sep. 28 (UPI) -- Warlords in Afghanistan
continue to enjoy great power and may pose a greater threat
to Afghanistan than the Taliban despite President Hamid Karzai's
attempts to sideline key regional power-brokers, Human Rights
Watch said Tuesday.
"The warlords are still calling the shots,"
said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, in a statement.
"Many voters in rural areas say the militias have already
told them how to vote, and that they're afraid of disobeying
them. Activists and political organizers who oppose the warlords
fear for their lives."
The Human Rights Watch report, "The Rule
of the Gun: Human Rights Abuses and Political Repression in
the Run-Up to Afghanistan's Presidential Election," chides
both the international community and the Afghan government for
claiming that top warlords have been sidelined, saying the multinational
force in Iraq needs more personnel to provide security across
the country ahead of the Oct. 9 election. It maintains that
unless top warlords are disarmed, problems could arise during
next year's parliamentary elections, which are likely to be
closely contested.
"The reality is that most Afghans involved
in politics on the ground are primarily afraid of warlords and
their factions, much more than they're afraid of the Taliban,"
Adams said.
Tuesday's report is at odds with what the Afghan
government and the Bush administration have been saying ahead
of the elections. Indeed, Karzai has replaced at least one top
warlord, Ismail Khan who controlled Herat province, and has
struck deals with others. Many warlords, including Gen. Abdul
Rashid Dostum and Defense Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim, are
seeking the presidency, however, and it is unclear how the elections,
which Karzai is expected to win easily, will affect their fortunes.
The government is working on a process called
demobilization, decommissioning and reintegration, or DDR, of
militia forces that it hopes will lead to the downsizing and,
ultimately, the elimination of militia forces. Afghan and U.S.
officials acknowledge, however, the process has been slow, noting
that some 15,000 of the country's 50,000 militia troops were
under the program.
"By June of next year, there should be no
more militia forces organized in Afghanistan," Zalmay Khalilzad,
the U.S. envoy to Kabul, told reporters in Washington two weeks
ago. "That's the government plan."
Afghan officials in Washington say the government
is working hard to curtail the strength of the warlords and
noted some instances where sidelined warlords, including Khan,
have voiced support for the government. M. Ashraf Haidari, the
government and media relations officer at the Afghan Embassy,
told United Press International the government has negotiated
with warlords, some of who have U.S. support, in the hope of
integrating them into the political process. He acknowledged
problems, however, but noted it was unlikely to affect the elections.
"There is, of course, a threat because there
is a DDR process that is slow and has not gone as well as one
expected," he said. "We hope there won't be any security
problems as the coalition forces accelerate their activities."
As part of its bid to stabilize the country, the
international community has beefed up its presence in Afghanistan
ahead of the elections. The U.S.-led multinational coalition
now stands at more than 18,000. Tuesday's Human Rights Watch
Report, however, says that may not be enough because of the
complaints of voter intimidation in some parts of the country
and bribes offered in others.
"Afghan leaders and external powers such
as the United States continue to underplay the dangers posed
by warlord dominance," said Adams in the statement. "For
a long time there has been widespread agreement that elections
cannot be successful unless additional international security
forces are deployed and warlord militias are disarmed. If Afghanistan
is a priority of the international community, where are the
troops?"
Afghan experts say that the country faces a bigger
threat -- drugs.
According to U.S. estimates, poppy cultivation
in the country was expected to jump 40 percent this year. Twenty-eight
of 34 Afghan provinces grow poppy and the number of acres under
poppy cultivation increased from 197,684 acres in 2003 to 247,105
acres in 2004. The poppy trade is estimated to contribute up
to 60 percent of Afghanistan's gross domestic product.
Much of the money from the trade -- which has
jumped in areas previously not used for sale and transport --
goes to finance warlords, corrupt government officials and extremist
groups, and the low cost of production will, many fear, lead
to a drug-use problem in the country.
"Narcotics ... (is) one the challenges and
will remain a major challenge for the Afghan government to resolve,"
Haidari said. "It runs hand in hand with terrorism and
warlordism."
One reason for the growth of poppy cultivation,
he said, was this year's drought in the country which forced
farmers to turn to the drugs trade. Afghan government policies,
it is hoped, will persuade them to move to growing cash crops.
