Afghanistan's first ever direct presidential election with violence
and deteriorating security in the country
Neal Conan: Talk of the Nation
National Public Radio (NPR)
08/05/2004
NEAL CONAN, host:
This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in
Washington.
As Afghanistan prepares for its first presidential
election, the country continues to suffer from violence and
terrorism, from poverty and from political and ethnic divisions.
After 25 years of almost constant war, much of Afghanistan's
infrastructure lies in ruins and the central government's authority
sometimes seems limited to the capital, Kabul. Yet, across the
country, millions have turned out to register to vote in the
looming election. Twenty candidates have emerged to challenge
the apparent favorite, interim President Hamid Karzai who took
office in 2002 with strong American support. Often overshadowed
by events in Iraqf, Afghanistan is at a crucial crossroads.
A successful election this October could help legitimize and
stabilize the government. The consequences of failure are ominous.
Today on TALK OF THE NATION Afghanistan's ambassador
to the United States joins us and we'll speak with journalist
Peter Bergen. He's just back from three weeks in Afghanistan
and Pakistan. And we welcome your questions about the upcoming
election, security, the role of women, the power of warlords
and the Taliban. If you've been to Afghanistan recently or served
in the military there, we'd especially like to hear from you.
Our phone number is (800) 989-8255. That's (800)
989-TALK. The e-mail address is [email protected].
And let's begin with Peter Bergen who's with us
here in Studio 3A. He's the author of "Holy War, Inc.:
Inside The Secret World of Osama bin Laden."
Just back last night after your visit to Afghanistan.
We appreciate you coming in today, Peter.
Mr. PETER BERGEN (New America Foundation; Author,
"Holy War, Inc."): Thank you, Neal.
CONAN: Everybody says the biggest problem in Afghanistan
is security. How did you find the situation there?
Mr. BERGEN: Well, personally, I found the situation
reasonably good. Obviously it's just my personal experience,
but I drove by cab up from Kandahar to Kabul, local cab. The
main commercial artery of the country, which has had problems
in the past, that was fine. I also drove from Kabul to the eastern
border with Pakistan. I found the security situation to be OK.
Now while I was there, five people were killed by a bomb in
Herat. A woman was killed in Kabul because somebody tried to
attack a Western compound. I mean, there are things happening
on a fairly constant basis, but I think that they are--not to
be Pollyannish about this, but I think the total number of people
killed by the sort of militant activity in the last year or
so is about 600 people.
We're sitting here in Washington--the murder rate
in Washington, which is a city of 500,000 people, 300 people
were killed last year, approximately. So countries--Afghanistan
is a country of 22, 25 million people. I think some perspective
is needed. Certainly, there are problems, but I don't think
this is going to threaten the incremental steps that Afghanistan
is making towards stability.
CONAN: Yet we also, while you were in Afghanistan,
Medecins Sans Frontieres, the Doctors Without Borders, a group
which has been in Afghanistan for quite some time through some
very difficult period, has said, 'Security's too bad, we can't
operate, we're pulling out.'
Mr. BERGEN: Indeed. But I think that's a very
specific thing. Obviously, 32 aid workers have been killed in
the past year which is obviously not a good number, five of
them from Medecins Sans Frontieres, but they think that the
Afghan government is not investigating in an aggressive enough
way the death of these five people, that's why they're pulling
out. Overall, the security situation, if you're an aid worker,
obviously you're not defended or if you're an election worker,
it's problematic. I won't deny that. But I--having gone there
thinking that, you know, Afghanistan was in really pretty bad
shape, just judging by all the press reports, it's clear that
the electoral registration is going incredibly well. We're looking
at 60 percent registering in Kandahar, the former stronghold
of the Taliban; 45 percent in Oruzgan, which is Mullah Omar's
own province. Those figures are based on a 1980s census. Obviously,
the population is larger now. But nonetheless, you're looking
at a pretty successful electoral registration drive.
CONAN: What about the infrastructure, that cab
ride? What was the road like?
Mr. BERGEN: Well, the road was, you know, I traveled
down that road under the Taliban in December of '99. It was
a spine-jarring, 17-hour journey, kind of a--now it's a seven-hour
journey. I won't pretend it's the Autobahn, but it's very different.
And that's important because these roads that go from Kandahar
to Kabul and also Kabul to the Pakistani border, this is the
lifeblood of the Afghan economy this kind of transport. So that
is going, you know--obviously, that is better.
CONAN: We hear a lot about the bustle and construction
under way in Kabul. What do we know about the rest of the country?
Mr. BERGEN: Well, in Kandahar, obviously, things
are very different than they were under the Taliban. I was there
under the Taliban. You're also seeing a lot of construction.
Kabul is now one of the world's fastest-growing cities. I think
a statistic that sort of speaks for itself is that since the
fall of the Taliban, something like three million Afghans have
returned to their home country from either Pakistan or Iran.
And they're voting with their feet, and if there was such a
major security problem that life was untenable, this wouldn't
be happening.
CONAN: What about the upcoming elections? What
do Afghans tell you about their--you know, obviously they're
registering to vote. Are they excited about this?
Mr. BERGEN: I think their registering to vote
is a symptom of that excitement. Obviously it's difficult to
vote. People are walking long distances and it's also potentially
dangerous to register to vote. But I think there's some very
good polling data, by the way, Neal, now. Hamid Karzai, the
president, is getting substantial or even overwhelming support
in every province of the country, including Kandahar. And we're
also seeing 82 percent of Afghans saying that life is better
now that it was two years ago.
So these kinds of polls--this is some pretty powerful
evidence that Afghans are feeling better about their lives.
There's so much more to be done, but the--I think there are
grounds for optimism.
CONAN: Well, let's take a phone call, and then
we'll introduce the ambassador. Our number, by the way, if you'd
like to join us is (800) 989-8255. The e-mail address is [email protected].
Marty joins us on the line from Washington.
MARTY (Caller): Hello.
CONAN: Hi, Marty.
MARTY: How are you?
CONAN: Very well, thanks.
MARTY: Well, thanks for taking my call.
CONAN: Sure.
MARTY: I just feel like perhaps being a little
overoptimistic in terms of (unintelligible) in Kandahar.
CONAN: Have you been there?
MARTY: Pardon?
CONAN: Have you been there?
MARTY: Yeah. I was there in Kandahar province
doing some documentary work for USAID on the day that the war
began in Iraq, and I can tell you that then there was a 48-hour
lockdown for all the ...(unintelligible) workers doing relief
and reconstruction efforts. And I've spoken to a few colleagues
of mine--you know, well, that was just over a year ago. I've
spoken to a few colleagues since who've been on contracts and
they've said that--I don't know, according to a lot of the people
that I've spoken with, it seems like it's gotten a lot worse.
CONAN: Well, Peter, you were there recently.
Mr. BERGEN: Well, you know, mine is just one experience.
You know, one thing that's interesting--and one of the US military
officers I spoke to in Kandahar, saying, 'You know, we're going
into areas of Zabul province which is above Oruzgan. It is a
very remote area where people still think we're the Russians.'
I mean, it's so...
MARTY: Yeah.
Mr. BERGEN: See, one thing that's happening is
people are going into areas which are--they've never gone into
before and obviously that comes with some threat from former
Taliban or present Taliban units. But I've got to say, it didn't
feel to me like the security situation was sort of desperate
or even particularly bad. Maybe I'm just willfully positive
about things, I don't know.
MARTY: Oh, I wouldn't say desperate. But I think,
you know, just based on what I've heard, it's gotten a lot worse
since then. I'll give you one example, the greatest concern
that I felt in the six weeks that I was there was going out
with a couple of fellows from the State Department to look for
poppy fields. They were doing poppy eradication projects. And
we actually had to hire a couple of arms guys to go with because--well,
for obvious reasons. But I've since heard that you wouldn't
even venture just outside Kandahar, outside the base now with
or without, or particularly without, an arms guard or two. Would
you...
Mr. BERGEN: Well, I mean, I ventured outside the
base and I went by myself and I took a local cab. Obviously,
it's one person's experience. But...
MARTY: Hmm.
CONAN: All right, Marty, thanks very much.
MARTY: Well, thanks. Good luck if you go back.
Mr. BERGEN: OK.
MARTY: Stay safe.
CONAN: With us here in Studio 3 is Afghanistan's
ambassador to the United States. Said Tayeb Jawad, we appreciate
your time today. Thanks very much for coming in.
Ambassador SAID TAYEB JAWAD (Afghanistan): You're
welcome.
CONAN: The picture of the security situation that
we've heard from Peter Bergen has been sounding improved. Is
your country ready for democratic elections?
Amb. JAWAD: Certainly, the country is ready for
democratic elections. Afghanistan have come a long way in short
two years, in addition of the return of the refugees. Some other
indicator shows that Afghanistan have made a significant achievement.
We have experienced a 30 percent growth rate last year; continued
at 20 percent this year. And five million kids are going back
to school in Afghanistan.
Out of nine million people who were registered
to vote, 41 percent are women, and some provinces in central
Afghanistan, the percentage of women participating in the registration
is 55 percent. The national average is 41 percent. We have introduced
a new currency in the past two years, replacing a number of
currencies that were in Afghanistan. We wanted a national currency.
The process of building the national institutions is under way.
Two years ago, we didn't have any--even a single National Army
soldier. Today we have about 13,000 army--Afghan National Army
soldiers in the process of building the Afghan national police
as well under way. We have 20,000 strong force of national police
force. The country...
CONAN: And that sounds very encouraging, yet we
continually hear that the Afghan government's forces would be
outmanned and outgunned by the forces of any number of the warlords
who control parts of the country.
Amb. JAWAD: This is a process of building national
institutions. Elements who are now considered as warlords were
people who were part of the political process for quite some
time in Afghanistan. They fought along the coalition forces
against the Taliban and other elements. And some of them actually
took the opportunity of being reintegrated into the political
process. Others who are involved in drug trafficking and would
like to continue to rule in Afghanistan by gun will be gradually
pushed aside.
CONAN: The drug problem, again, we had mention
of it earlier. I think there are some estimates from the UN
that Afghanistan may be supplying as much as 75 percent of the
opium in the world today. What's to be done about this? What
does President Karzai and, for that matter, his American allies
doing about this?
Amb. JAWAD: We see a clear connection between
narcotics, terrorism and warlordism in Afghanistan. President
Karzai is very much determined to move against narcotics and
the drug problem in Afghanistan. We are asking the international
community to mobilize all available resources in Afghanistan,
being military or otherwise, in the fight against narcotics.
We would like to see the fight against narcotics being a part
of the fight against terrorism because the proceeds of the narcotics
do actually feed into the terrorism.
Afghanistan has adopted a national strategy on
fighting the narcotics and we are working on building the national
institutions. The Afghan national police force that's being
trained right now, will have a special unit to fight narcotics.
But this is a very complicated problem internationally and in
many other countries. We are fighting this war for many, many
years. And it will take some time.
We have to give other opportunities for the farmers
to get busy with. We have to provide for alternative livelihood.
And continue with the process of the DDR, which is the demobilization,
disarmament and reintegration of the militias into the civil
life. As I mentioned, warlordism, drugs and terrorism feed each
other in Afghanistan.
Mr. BERGEN: You know, Mr. Ambassador, one thing
that I heard in Afghanistan was, you know--well, you've separated
the elections, the presidential election is October and now
the parliamentary election in April of next year. People were
concerned that the parliamentary elections were actually going
to be much more problematic than the presidential because at
the end of the day this is all about local power and that is
something that there are a lot of interests that are going to
be on either side of that.
Amb. JAWAD: That's absolutely right. While it's
difficult to intimidate people when they are electing our presidents
because one person has one vote, it is much easier to prevent
good candidates from running in the local elections. So the
concern that the future parliament of Afghanistan may include
elements who will be working against the democracy in Afghanistan
and against building a civil society in Afghanistan is a legitimate
concern. And that's why it's important that the government and
President Karzai takes more bold step against warlords and against
the elements who may actually derail the process of the progress
in Afghanistan.
CONAN: Well, Peter Bergen, we have to let you
go and continue to recover from your jet lag. We appreciate
it. Peter Bergen just returned last night from three weeks in
Afghanistan and returned last night from Pakistan. We appreciate
your time today. Thanks very much.
Mr. BERGEN: Thank you.
